Friday the 13th
This report was written in 1997. A new updated report is available. Email us for the URL.
Trading During Friday 13th Weeks
We examined the past 11 years for this Program Trading Research report. The daily precedents are based on overall averages of each day. In reality though, the daily odds for this current Friday 13th Week will be honed by each prior day's particular performance. For example, a day that may have overall historic odds of having closed negative 60% or more, might well become a day with positive oriented odds should the previous day(s) post an exceptional pattern that led to that result. However, this report's intent is to provide you with an overview of prior precedents. You should also keep in mind that although "volatility" has become practically a daily norm for the market these days; back in the late 80s into the mid 90s it was considered quite exceptional. You will easily note that Friday the 13th Weeks have ALWAYS exhibited this "volatile" tendency.
Mondays have posted long trades 94.7% of the time; short trades 89% of the time; and, done both 84% of the time; a 84% volatility factor. They closed negative 52.6% of the time. Here is one example of how we hone this percentage in an attempt to be even more accurate: When these particular Mondays have been preceded by negative market closes on the previous Friday, these Mondays have a 71.4% volatility factor and close negative 57% of the time. Five of these particular Mondays have been on what we call a "blue" day, i.e. "blue" being one pattern in our four color coded program trading pattern recognition systems based on the Premium (fair value) and other indicators. The other color coded patterns are yellow, green, and red. On these "blue" days, 100% posted long trades; 80% short trades; and, 80% did both, an 80% volatility factor. They closed positive 80% of the time.
Tuesdays have posted long trades 100% of the time; short trades 94.7% of the time; and, done both 94.7% of the time, a 94.7% volatility factor. They closed positive 52.9% of the time. Five of these particular Tuesdays have been "yellow" trading days; and, have closed negative 60% of the time.
Wednesdays have posted short trades 100% of the time; long trades 94.7% of the time; and done both 94.7% of the time as well, i.e. another 94.7% volatility factor. They closed positive 54% of the time. Five of these particular Wednesdays have been "green" trading days; and, have closed negative 60% of the time.
Thursdays have posted long trades 100% of the time; short trades 78.9% of the time; and, done both 78.9% of the time as well, a 78.9% volatility factor. They closed positive 70% of the time. Five of these particular Thursdays have been "red" trading days; and, have closed negative 80% of the time.
Fridays have posted long trades 94% of the time; short trades 83% of the time; and, done both 77.7% volatility factor. They closed positive 81% of the time. Five of these have been "blue" Fridays, which have closed positive 100% of the time.
Special Note on October Friday 13th Weeks
Within the past eleven years, there have only been two precedents of October Friday 13th Weeks. ...one in
1989 and one in 1995. Only you long term experienced traders were around back in 1989...but, consider this "interesting" fact: In that special October week, Monday wound up being the only positive closing day; with each ensuing trading day that week closing negative, ending with the Friday 13th crash. Plus, that particular Friday 13th was also a full moon trading day. Just like Friday will be this week. Incidentally, the only other full moon Friday 13th was on February 13, 1987.
Additional information on using our color coded program trading pattern recognition systems with your trading is available by attending one of our Program Trading Seminars.
