Program Trading & Presidents' Day
Do you know the most predictable trade to make on the Friday before Presidents' Day? And on the Tuesday afterward? Our clients know. And almost all of the professional program traders that you are trading against every day know too. That is especially true if you are trading S&P, Russell, and Dow contracts and stocks in the OEX Index. Remember that program trading is over 60% of the volume every day in those contracts and stocks.
Here is the information about trading near Presidents' Day that program traders know well. Hopefully our Program Trading Research will help level the playing field for you.
Fridays Before
Presidents' Day
In trading history, Fridays before Presidents' Day have
overall seen the spoos
gap down an average of 65%
of the time. And overall, the most predictable trades have been short
74% of the time. The spoos have closed negative
62.9% of the
time and the Dow has also closed negative 62.9% of the time.
Though the minority of
these Fridays have seen the spoos gap up,
we actually see even more impressive trading odds whenever they do. If the
spoos gap up, the most predictable trades have been short
88.8% of the time. The spoos and Dow have closed negative 66.6% of the time. 77.7%
of the daily lows have been between 11:10 and
2:55, with only 33.3% of the daily highs after
11:00. The most effective short entry
times have been between the 8:30 open and 9:30 an average of 37.5% of the
time, with 62.6% between 9:55 and 10:55.
Whenever these particular Fridays
gap down, the most predictable
trades have been short 64.7% of the
time. The spoos and Dow have both closed negative
58.8% of the
time. The most effective short entry times
have occurred within the first hour 60% of the time, between 10:00 and 11:00
30% of the time, and between 1:00 and
2:00 about 10% of the time.
Fridays Before
Presidents' Day and Before Expiration Week.
Since the spoos began trading, there have
been twelve prior instances in which Presidents' Day was the
Monday of an option expiration week. Of these twelve years, the
Fridays immediately prior have seen most predictable trades short
63.6% of the time, with the spoos and Dow both only closing negative
54.5% of the time. Of the daily lows, 63.6% have been between
11:00 and 3:15, with 45% between 1:00 and 3:15. Of the daily highs, 63.6% have
been within the first hour between the 8:30 open and 9:30, with 36.4% between
12:45 and 3:15. The most effective short entry
times have occurred within the first hour 30% of the time, with 54% between 9:55 and 10:55 and 16% between
12:30 and 1:30.
Tuesdays After
Presidents' Day
In trading history,
overall Tuesdays after Presidents' Day have seen the most predictable trades short
70% of the time.
The spoos and Dow closes have been split 50/50.
Of the lows, 63% have occurred
between 10:00 and 3:15, with 52% between noon and 3:15. Of the highs, 52% have been between
the 8:30 open and 9:45, with 15% between 10:00 and 12:45 and 33% between 2:00
and 3:15. The most effective short
entry times
have occurred within the first hour 39% of the time, with 31% between 10:05 and 11:05 and 30% between 11:50 and
1:05.
Tuesdays After Presidents' Day
in Expiration Weeks
Expiration Tuesdays after Presidents' Day
have
seen the most predictable trades short
63.6% of the time. BUT,
the spoos and Dow closes have both been positive 72.7%
of the time!
